Posted by
hpaft on Saturday, May 09, 2009 10:06:37 PM
Republicans have forgotten how to win elections. For five major elections now, from 2000 to 2008, the GOP has followed the Rove method to winning elections. The base, the base, the base. The results are actually fairly sketchy in hindsight, especially for all the talk of a "permanent Republican majority." In 2000, Bush lost the popular vote, and "won" the electoral vote. In 02, the GOP made gains on the back of national security issues post 9/11, and the drumbeat on Iraq. In 04, Bush won the popular vote this time, and again eked out an electoral victory. In 06, Dems took control of both houses by storm. And in 08, Dems took control of the White House, and increased their dominance in both houses. Where was the base?
The problem isn't the base. Its still there always has been, not going anywhere either. The problem is the strategy. For people who voted for "go-it-alone" Bush, the idea that all you need is for the base to get pumped up pumped up pumped is very appealing. But thats not how elections work. 40% of voters vote left, always have always will. 40% of voters vote right, always have always will. 20% of voters can change their mind. If the GOP keeps going to their base, that middle 20% will continue to vote left.
The Karl Rove method of winning elections never had long term viablity. The best victory for the GOP was in 02, not because of strategy, but because 9/11 had put traditional right wing strengths at the top of voters agendas. In 2000 & 04, Bush's razor thin victories left McCain with the dubious privlidge of having to defend everything, to lose one state, let alone ten, would lose him the election. The Karl Rove method of going to base, cost McCain his greatest asset, his "Maverick" label. John McCain is not as right-wing as the campaign presented him as. However, the campaign believed that they risked losing right-wing voters somehow. Who were they going to vote for?!?!? Bob Barr??? Sarah Palin was supposed to solidify that block of voters for McCain. Where were they going???
The middle 20% of the country is the battleground. BO understood this, and aimed his campaign at the center of the electorate and won. Howard Dean made a mission of increasing the size of the Dems side of Congress and did it by "diluting" the so-called purity of the party by sponsering anti gun control, and anti abortion candidates under the Democratic ticket. By doing so, he won both the House and Senate(winning the Senate was not expected) and won what may ultimately be a 60 vote majority in the Senate today. Did diluting the ideology of left cost democrats? No, quite the opposite. They are stronger than ever. Will their "comprimises" in ideolgy cost them down the road. Probably, Obama has already been forced to tread lightly when it comes to gun control, despite in the increase in crime in this country and the instablity in Mexico. By ridding the GOP of RINO's and moderates, who do agree with the right on most topics, you are sending a message to that middle 20% that you don't now, or will ever be interested in listening to their views or representing their interests.